China is confident and also capable of minimizing the uncertainty and adverse impacts of external shocks, promoting sustained and healthy economic growth as existing stimulus policies take effect, to be reinforced by new pro-growth measures being planned by the government, Li Chao, spokesperson for the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the country’s economic planner, said on Thursday.
The remarks came in response to a media question about assessing the impact of external factors such as sluggish global growth on China's economic outlook, given the OECD's lowered global growth forecast and a latest warning from JPMorgan Chase's CEO about U.S. bond market risks.
Facing a more complex and severe external environment, China has adhered to steady economic progress, aided by the government's more proactive policies, Li said. She noted that the economy has generally operated smoothly, with accelerated efforts to stabilize employment.
Speaking on the expanded policy support for equipment upgrade and consumer goods trade-in programs, Li noted that ultra-long special treasury bonds provide 200 billion yuan ($27.87 billion) in support for equipment upgrades. The first batch of approximately 173 billion yuan has been allocated to around 7,500 projects across 16 sectors, and the second batch is currently undergoing project review and selection.
For consumer goods trade-in, 300 billion yuan in ultra-long special treasury bonds have been allocated, with the first two batches totaling 162 billion yuan disbursed as planned in January and April.
To stabilize employment, Li said that the NDRC and the Ministry of Finance allocated 16.5 billion yuan in 2025 central special investments for the work-relief programs, supporting over 3,900 projects nationwide which are expected to address employment and income issues for 380,000 people in difficulty.
Li noted that the new action plan to enhance work-relief programs and promote employment and income for key groups raises the share of labor compensation in central project funding from over 30 percent to over 40 percent. She added that the NDRC has finished initial tasks such as identifying key groups and planning projects, and is now accelerating project reviews.
The complexity, severity, and uncertainty of the external environment have increased, with global trade and economic growth challenges threatening economic stability. However, while the World Bank and OECD cut global growth forecasts by 0.4 and 0.2 percentage points, respectively, China's growth outlook remains stable, with Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs raising their forecasts for China, Li said.
For example, Deutsche Bank analysts recently raised China's GDP forecast by 0.2 percentage points to 4.7 percent growth for the full year of 2025.
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